The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling new forces and assets to the line of contact, violating all previous obligations on disengagement.
Kiev is shelling the territories of Donbass every day, including residential areas and civilian infrastructure, trying on calling back fire from the militia’s troops and thus creating a pretext for a military escalation.
From January 1 to March 19, 2021, on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic, 9 people were injured of varying severity as a result of armed aggression from Ukraine: 6 servicemen of the Republic and 3 civilians. 17 soldiers of the Republic were killed. In total, over the past week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the districts of twenty-four settlements of the DPR 151 times, the LPR was shelled 24 times, in total, 515 mines and shells were fired across the territory of the Republic. “The representative office of the DPR in the JCCC has repeatedly informed about the facts of pulling the VFU equipment to the line of contact.
Analysis of the OSCE reports for the current year suggests another wave of accumulation of equipment and heavy weapons near the contact line, which, despite public assurances from Kiev representatives about the supposedly normal rotation of units, indicates a possible preparation for an escalation on the part of Ukraine”, reported SCCC in DPR.
According to the estimates of the DPR representative office in the JCCC, in two weeks from March 2 to March 17, international observers recorded 170 pieces of equipment and heavy weapons at railway stations in settlements controlled by the Ukrainian forces, including MLRS installations, tanks, as well as large-caliber howitzer artillery.
The past week, despite the agreement on additional measures to control the current ceasefire regime, was restless for the residents of the Lugansk People’s Republic. According to observers of the LPR representative office in the JCCC, militants of the armed formations of Ukraine carried out six attacks on LPR territory using 120-mm and 82-mm mortars, grenade launchers of various types, and small arms, including large-caliber weapons, prohibited by the Minsk agreements. 16th of March. The tank units of the army of the DPR were put on high alert.
There is increased activity on the line of contact. On March 17, a train with military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was seen in Slavyansk, including 122-mm self-propelled howitzers 2S1 “Gvozdika” and rocket launchers UR-77 (video in telegram).
On 22 March, an official representative of the People’s Militia of LPR announced that nationalists of the “Right Sector” group had arrived at the frontline from the Ukrainian side to organize provocations. It is also reported that journalists from 13 foreign media have arrived at the front, including AFP and Reuters. Also, on 22 March in the village of Trudovskie, Petrovsky district of Donetsk, a Ukrainian sniper killed a civilian pensioner.
The increase of Ukrainian military equipment and weapons on the line of contact is regularly reflected in the daily official reports of the OSCE. According to Marochko, by 22nd of March, the situation is characterized as consistently tense.
Ukrainian forces continue to carry out provocative shelling, thus, the likelihood of Ukraine’s resumption of the active phase of hostilities in order to involve the Russia in the conflict remains.
Ukraine conducts rotational measures, continues to carry out equipment measures of new and old positions. Based on the analysis of the current situation, it is unlikely that the enemy will conduct offensive operations in the near future. The enemy did not proceed to create a strike force.